Decoding the Crowd: What Everyone Really Wants
Is it the aroma or is it the mouthfeel?
What do people truly love about beer? Is it the bold aroma that wafts from the glass? The golden clarity of its appearance? Or perhaps the complex flavors that linger on the palate?
When a beer is evaluated multiple aspects can be graded:
- Aroma: The beer's smell, scored out of 10.
- Appearance: Its color, clarity, head, and visual carbonation, scored out of 5.
- Taste: The flavor, including bitterness, palate, and finish, scored out of 10.
- Mouthfeel: The beer’s body, carbonation, and astringency, scored out of 5.
- Overall: A holistic score that captures the reviewer’s personal experience and the beer’s characteristics, scored out of 20.
These metrics combine for a total score of 50 which, after dividing by 10, gives us the rating which scored out of 5.
Users tend to prefer taste and aroma, with both distributions peaking near the higher end of the scale. Both have a median value of 7, meaning that half of the raters gave these attributes a score well above the passing grade. This highlights their central role in shaping a beer's impression, which is understandable, as they are the first things noticed when sipping and smelling. In contrast, mouthfeel and appearance are less appreciated, with both having a median of 3, suggesting these aspects are less memorable for beer drinkers. These factors are also more subjective and harder to evaluate, which may contribute to their lower ratings.
The overall experience follows a similar trend to that of taste and aroma, with a median score of 14 and a noticeable bias towards the positive end of the scale. This suggests that when taste and aroma are right, they strongly contribute to a favorable overall impression of the beer.
In general, despite varying median values, users tend to give high ratings across all categories. But why is this the case?
We believe two main biases play a significant role in this phenomenon:
- Central tendency bias: This bias leads raters to place most items near the middle of a rating scale. We observe this particularly with mouthfeel and appearance, where most ratings cluster around the middle value, with fewer ratings at the extremes.
- Social experience bias: Beer is often consumed in social contexts, which can lead to a more positive bias in ratings. For example, even if a beer was "average", a fun night with friends might influence a higher rating. This could explain why taste, aroma, and overall ratings tend to be more positive, while mouthfeel and appearance, which are harder to evaluate, may be rated more randomly.
Now that we know users generally prefer taste and aroma over appearance and mouthfeel, how are these factors connected? Given the similar distributions between aroma, taste, and overall experience, could there be an influence between them?
Everything is correlated
Previously, we observed that the overall ratings closely resembled the distribution of taste and aroma. Now, let's explore if there is any relationship between them.
With a correlation of 0.86 and 0.77 with the overall ratings, taste and aroma are the king and queen of the beer experience. If these aspects improve, the overall rating tends to follow suit, and they are also highly correlated with each other.
This makes perfect sense: taste and aroma are the most immediate and visceral aspects of enjoying a beer. Whether it's the hop-forward bitterness of an IPA or the rich malty aroma of a stout, these elements shape the essence of how a beer is perceived. If either taste or aroma falls short, the overall impression of the beer is unlikely to recover, no matter how appealing its appearance or mouthfeel may be.
We’ve established that taste and aroma are highly correlated with each other, but how important are they in determining the overall grade? Do they have the same influence on the overall rating?
To answer these questions, we can use a powerful tool: linear regression. By fitting a linear regression model to our data, we find that taste and aroma can accurately predict the overall score, with an R² of 77.32%. This means that most of the variance in the overall experience is explained by these factors.
We also see that the coefficient for taste is 1.7843, while aroma, the second most important factor, has a coefficient of 0.7184. This indicates that taste is more than twice as important as aroma, meaning if a beer’s taste isn’t right, the overall experience is likely to fail.
Now we know that the taste has a big impact on the overall experience, but how the rating have evolved in time? Do people appreciate the beers more and more, or are they becoming more and more critical?
Endless Evolution
Ratings are not static — they tell a story, evolving alongside trends, technology, and the expanding beer market. To begin, we take a step back and observe how ratings have changed over the years.
How many different insights from just a map!
- Beer lovers evolution: We see that people over time prefer the beers more from beer loving countries such as United States, Belgium, United Kingdom and Canada and are enjoying more and more beers from european or US breweries bringing these countries to the top of the list.
- I'm never going to like your beers: In all the other parts of the world it seems that the ratings are not increasing over time and in some cases they are decreasing. We see some improvements in some specific countries (such as Brazil or Australia) but in general these countries doesn't follow the positive trend of the countries from either EU or US.
Let's go deeper and let's see how the different rating metrics have evolved over time too.
We can see that the mean for all categories is increasing over time, and for aroma, taste, and overall, the median has shifted from 13 to 14. This, along with the increase in the mean, clearly shows that over time there has been a shift in the bias towards the higher end of the scale. In general, the rise in the average mean indicates a trend of all ratings moving towards the higher values meaning that people are increasingly enjoing the beers produced!